Fintech firm NAGA Group AG is entering 2026 with momentum, reporting a 38% surge in new clients and a 3.5% rise in FX-adjusted revenue to €65.4 million in its preliminary FY 2025 results.
Despite a tough trading environment, the social trading platform added users at a 16% lower cost, positioning itself for a breakout year. Analysts now see the stock (N4G.DE) trading at a 300% discount to its estimated intrinsic value of €12.44, with current prices hovering around €2.70.
The 2026 outlook:
- Base case (60% probability): Price target of €5–€7, driven by 15% revenue growth and a 15% EBITDA margin.
- Bull case (30%): Price target above €10, fueled by a 25% user increase, crypto market recovery, and AI adoption.
- Bear Ccse (10%): Price floor of €2–€2.50 if new regulations or low volatility hit.
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Key metrics:
- EPS forecast: Expected to grow 52% annually, reaching breakeven by 2027.
- User base: Over 2 million across Europe, MENA, Asia, and LATAM.
- ARPU: Stable at ~€1,600, with withdrawals down 21%—signaling stronger retention.
Technically, the stock is showing bullish signals: RSI below 30 (oversold) and MACD hinting at a trend reversal. With a beta below 1, NAGA remains less volatile than crypto-heavy peers.
Verdict? Analysts rate it “Overweight”—calling it a high-upside play in the €100 billion online brokerage market.
What this means for traders
For swing traders: The oversold RSI and potential MACD crossover suggest a short-term bounce could be coming. A break above €3 could trigger a move toward €4.30–€4.80.
For long-term investors: With an 80% discount to intrinsic value and a clear path to profitability by 2027, NAGA offers asymmetric risk-reward—limited downside around €2, potential upside of 100–300%.
For risk-aware traders: The bear case (€2–€2.50) is largely priced in. Keep an eye on ESMA regulations and crypto volatility—they remain the biggest wildcards.
