Nvidia earnings could trigger $200 billion stock swing, options indicate

Nvidia earnings could lead to a $200 billion share swing, options show

Traders anticipate significant movement in Nvidia’s stock following its earnings report on Wednesday, though the expected volatility is less intense than in previous periods, according to U.S. options markets.

Options data from Trade Alert suggests Nvidia’s shares might swing 8.7% in either direction by Friday, translating to a potential market cap change of $200 billion—more than the market capitalization of about 90% of S&P 500 companies. Despite this, the expected move is smaller than the 16.4% jump seen after Nvidia’s last quarterly earnings and below the 12% average swing over the past eight quarters.

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Nvidia, up roughly 87% this year, is a key player in the AI industry with a market value of approximately $2.3 trillion, ranking it behind only Microsoft and Apple on Wall Street. Investors are hopeful for another strong quarterly report from the chipmaker.

Interest in AI-related investments has grown, extending to other sectors like power, commodities, and utilities, according to strategists at BofA. They predict Nvidia will contribute 9% of the S&P 500’s earnings growth over the next year, down from 37% over the past year.

Despite a less aggressive volatility expectation, options traders still see potential upside for Nvidia’s stock. Nvidia is expected to report earnings of $5.59 per share and quarterly revenue of $24.65 billion, up from $7.19 billion a year ago.