SP 500 surge hits 14% but economic fears remain unresolved

The S&P 500 has surged 14% since early April, marking its best run since 2004. But strategists warn the rally may not last, as key risks – like trade tensions and a slowing economy – remain unresolved.

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Despite strong earnings (up 12.8% YoY) and optimism over potential trade deals, uncertainties loom. JPMorgan’s David Kelly cautions that without progress on trade or fiscal stimulus, a recession is still likely. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson argues the market needs a China deal and Fed rate cuts to sustain momentum – neither of which is guaranteed.

All eyes are now on the Fed’s Wednesday decision, though no rate cuts are expected yet. Bottom line: The rebound is welcome, but Wall Street isn’t celebrating just yet.