Wheat prices decline as record global supply looms

Wheat prices are sliding for a sixth consecutive day, marking the longest decline since late June, as global production is forecast to hit a record high in 2024-25. Futures in Chicago are also on track for a second weekly drop.

 

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The USDA predicts bumper crops from Australia and improved yields in parts of Argentina, further bolstering supply expectations. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar, supported by the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts, is adding downward pressure on prices.

Despite the bearish outlook, smaller crop forecasts from Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, may temper losses. Consultant SovEcon recently cut its 2025 production estimate for Russia to the lowest level since 2021, signaling potential limits to the market’s decline.