Best commodities to watch in 2025: Top investments and trading insights
Commodities offer diverse opportunities, and as 2025 approaches, market trends are reshaping the landscape. This article analyzes the top commodities to watch, providing insights—not recommendations—for informed decisions.
Top commodities to watch in 2025
Gold: a timeless safe haven
Gold is expected to remain a standout performer in 2025, buoyed by falling yields and supportive monetary policies. With central banks, particularly in emerging markets, diversifying their reserves away from the U.S. dollar, gold demand is likely to increase. The ongoing rate cuts by major central banks also reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, attracting investors to this safe-haven asset.
- Scenario: In early 2025, if the Federal Reserve signals a pause in rate hikes, gold could rally as real yields decline.
- Trading idea: If gold consolidates near $1,900 and forms a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., double bottom), enter a long position targeting $2,000 with a stop-loss at $1,880.
- Example: In March 2023, gold surged above $2,000 during banking sector instability. In a similar scenario, look for geopolitical events or economic stressors to spark demand for gold.
Natural gas: a booming sector
Natural gas is set for a strong year, fueled by geopolitical shifts and increased global demand for LNG. The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine pipeline deal and the addition of new U.S. export capacity will likely drive demand and prices higher. Industrial use and exports to Mexico are expected to further bolster the market.
- Scenario: Winter 2025 sees colder-than-expected temperatures in Europe, causing natural gas demand to spike due to heating needs.
- Trading idea: Buy natural gas futures or options if prices hold above $4.00/MMBtu during October, with a target of $4.80 and stop-loss at $3.80.
- Example: In December 2022, U.S. LNG exports surged due to European demand. Anticipate a similar scenario with global supply constraints.
Cocoa: a supply-driven opportunity
Cocoa, which was the best-performing commodity in 2024, is likely to see continued volatility in 2025. Adverse weather conditions in West Africa, the region responsible for 75% of global production, have tightened supply. With limited relief in sight, cocoa could remain an attractive trading opportunity.
- Scenario: In 2025, West African cocoa production remains low due to persistent adverse weather and logistical challenges.
- Trading idea: Buy cocoa futures if prices retest $3,400 per metric ton after a dip, with a target of $3,700. Use the WisdomTree Cocoa ETC for indirect exposure.
- Example: In 2023, cocoa prices rallied due to similar weather constraints. Monitor export data and crop reports for actionable signals.
Grains: rebounding after declines
Grain markets, particularly wheat and maize, are showing signs of bottoming out after significant price drops in 2024. Rising fertilizer costs and tightening supply chains are expected to support a gradual price recovery. However, soybeans may remain under pressure due to oversupply and weak demand.
- Scenario: A drought in key U.S. and Russian wheat-producing regions reduces global supply in 2025, driving prices higher.
- Trading idea: Buy wheat futures near $5.50 per bushel during planting season, targeting $6.50 with a stop-loss at $5.20.
- Example: In 2021, droughts caused wheat prices to soar; similar conditions could repeat given climatic unpredictability.
Germanium: a rare Earth essential
Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions from China continue to make germanium a strategic commodity. Used in renewable energy and electronics, its scarcity and high demand position it as a lucrative investment for 2025.
- Scenario: Tensions between the U.S. and China lead to export restrictions on rare earth elements, including germanium.
- Trading idea: Invest in stocks of companies producing rare earth metals or ETFs like the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF. Monitor policy announcements and trade sanctions as triggers.
- Example: In 2023, China’s export restrictions on germanium and gallium boosted prices significantly, creating opportunities in mining stocks.
Brent crude: production cuts amid transition
While the global transition to renewable energy impacts long-term oil demand, Brent crude remains a critical commodity for traders. OPEC+ production adjustments and economic recoveries in key regions will likely drive short- to medium-term price fluctuations, presenting lucrative trading opportunities.
- Scenario: OPEC+ announces production cuts in mid-2025 to stabilize falling oil prices. Prices rebound sharply from $70 per barrel.
- Trading idea: Go long on Brent crude at $72 with a target of $85, placing a stop-loss at $68. Pair this trade with WTI for spread opportunities.
- Example: In October 2022, OPEC+ production cuts led to a rally in oil prices, showcasing the group’s ability to influence market dynamics.
Silver: dual-role demand surge
Silver continues to benefit from its dual role as both an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset. With green energy initiatives gaining momentum, the metal’s use in solar panels and electronics positions it as a key commodity for 2025.
- Scenario: Governments expand renewable energy investments, boosting demand for silver in solar panel production.
- Trading idea: Enter long positions if silver holds above $23 per ounce after a breakout, targeting $25. Use CFDs or ETFs like the WisdomTree Physical Silver ETC for exposure.
- Example: In mid-2023, silver prices rose alongside increased renewable energy adoption, reinforcing its industrial demand.
Coffee: brewing profits amid climate uncertainty
Coffee remains one of the most climate-sensitive commodities, with yields highly dependent on weather conditions in key growing regions like Brazil. As global demand rises, any supply disruption can create significant trading opportunities.
- Scenario: Brazilian coffee yields fall due to frost in key growing regions, tightening global supply.
- Trading idea: Go long on coffee futures at $2.20 per pound after confirming a breakout above $2.10, with a target of $2.50 and stop-loss at $2.00.
- Example: In 2021, similar climate issues led to a sharp rise in coffee prices, showcasing the market’s sensitivity to weather conditions.
Commodity portfolio for 2025
To build a well-balanced commodity portfolio, diversify across different sectors while considering risk appetite and market trends.
Precious metals:
- Gold: 25% allocation via ETFs or futures (e.g., Invesco Physical Gold ETC).
- Silver: 15% allocation for industrial and safe-haven exposure.
Energy:
- Natural Gas: 20% allocation through futures or ETFs (WisdomTree Natural Gas ETC).
- Brent Crude: 15% allocation via CFDs or futures contracts.
Agriculture:
- Cocoa: 10% allocation through futures or targeted ETFs.
- Grains (Maize/Wheat): 10% allocation via the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF.
Rare Earth metals:
- Germanium and rare Earths: 10% allocation through stocks or the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF.
Total allocation: 100%
This portfolio ensures exposure to growth sectors like green energy, industrial metals, and safe-haven assets while maintaining balance and diversification. Adjust allocations as market conditions and personal risk tolerance evolve.
Top Forex brokers for commodities trading
Choosing the right broker is crucial for commodities trading. The best brokers provide tight spreads, reliable execution, and a variety of commodities. Here’s a list of top brokers to consider for your 2025 trading strategy.
HF Markets FX commodities trading
HF Markets is a versatile broker offering trading in currencies, commodities, equities, indices, and more. With 3 account types, tight spreads starting at 0.1 pips, and platforms like MT4 and MT5, it caters to traders of all levels. The broker ensures liquidity and supports automated trading, enhancing strategy performance.
HF Markets also offers a VPS service and HFcopy, allowing traders to copy the strategies of experts. Regulated in the EU, UK (FCA), and Dubai (DFSA), it provides secure and compliant trading. Additionally, HF Markets offers leverage tailored for commodity trading, maximizing opportunities in this sector.
Exness FX commodities trading
Exness is a global broker offering a wide range of trading instruments, including currencies, stocks, indices, metals, energies, and cryptocurrencies. Traders can use MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, or the Exness app on iOS and Android.
Exness offers various account types, including retail, professional, and demo accounts, and supports funding through bank transfer, cards, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Tether. The broker also provides valuable tools such as a Trader’s Calculator, Economic Calendar, and Trading Signals.
With licenses from the FCA, CySEC, FSCA, and others, Exness ensures secure, compliant trading. It also supports CFD trading in metals like Gold, Silver, and Platinum, and other commodities, with flexible margin requirements.
XTB FX commodities trading
XTB offers a wide range of assets to trade, including currency pairs, indices, commodities, shares, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies. The broker is regulated by major authorities like the FCA, KNF, and CySEC.
XTB’s proprietary platform, xStation, is available on web, desktop, and mobile, featuring tools like advanced charting, customizable layouts, market sentiment indicators, and one-click trading. It’s designed for traders of all levels.
Additionally, XTB provides MetaTrader 4 with access to over 50 currency pairs, along with advanced features like Expert Advisors (EAs) and customizable indicators for more experienced traders.
XM Group FX commodities trading
XM Group offers more than 1,000 financial instruments, including gold, silver, and Forex pairs, on the MT4/MT5 platforms with competitive trading conditions.
They provide three account types: Micro, Standard, and XM Ultra Low, with the Micro account being perfect for beginners. XM also offers an unlimited demo account with a $100,000 virtual balance to practice in real market conditions.
Regulated by ASIC, CySEC, and DFSA, XM ensures a secure trading environment. They also provide bonus programs, free VPS, and no commissions on deposits and withdrawals.
AvaTrade FX commodities trading
AvaTrade is a leading web brokerage offering multilingual support and a wide range of platforms. Traders can access over 60 currency pairs, CFDs, shares from major exchanges, Cryptocurrencies, metals, energy commodities, and more.
AvaTrade provides platforms like MT4, MT5, AvaTradeGo, AvaOptions, and the mobile app, catering to all trader levels. They also offer a demo account with a $100,000 virtual balance for practice.
The website features useful analytical and educational tools, including an economic calendar, market analysis, and courses. AvaTrade is fully transparent and regulated by global authorities such as MiFID, ASIC, and FSCA.
Related articles:
Top commodities to trade in 2025 - FAQ